Agrifood markets and support in the United States after 1 year of COVID‐19 pandemic

This article briefly outlines the agrifood market and policy situation in United States after 1 year of COVID-19 pandemic. Agrifood markets suffered initial disruptions from both supply-side demand-side shocks but significant adjustments by farmers, processors, distributors, government kept these relatively shorty-lived. Substantial support has been provided to farmers as part $5 trillion economy-wide stimulus enacted. included payments 2020 under Coronavirus Food Assistance Program (CFAP) nearly $24 billion producers a wide array products. These came on top trade-related agriculture 2018 2019. The also expansion nutrition assistance programs for low-income households which were among hardest hit I conjecture that pandemic will influence planning social across US economy years come not shift basic structure agricultural production distribution. Counter-cyclical farm is reentrenched within political arena expectations levels may have raised. Cet discute brièvement le marché et la des politiques agroalimentaires aux États-Unis après un an de pandémie COVID-19. Les marchés ont subi perturbations initiales dues à chocs fois du côté l'offre demande, mais ajustements importants agriculteurs, transformateurs, distributeurs gouvernement maintenu ces derniers relativement courte durée. Un soutien substantiel été fourni agriculteurs dans cadre mesures relance l’économie l'ordre 5000 milliards dollars. Cela comprenait paiements en au titre programme d'aide alimentaire contre coronavirus (PAAC) près 24 dollars producteurs d'un large éventail produits. Ces sont venus s'ajouter lié commerce l'agriculture Le également l'expansion programmes d'assistance nutritionnelle pour les ménages faible revenu, qui étaient parmi plus durement touchés par pandémie. Je suppose que influencera planification politique sociale l'ensemble l'économie américaine années venir, ne modifiera pas base distribution agricoles États-Unis. La agricole anticyclique est nouveau enracinée l'arène attentes concernant niveaux peuvent avoir augmentées. When first death occurred February 2020, it seemed unfathomable fatalities would run into thousands, then tens hundreds thousands. Every nation scrambled respond threat its unique cultural, institutional norms. Suppression virus return full economic activity dual public goals. None found perfect formula none was possible—tradeoffs had be made. States, with distinct federal, state, local governance authorities, amidst simmering partisan disunity inflamed, undertook lockdowns health measures less strenuous nationwide than might been. Congress enacted substantial fiscal bipartisan basis Federal Reserve pursued supportive monetary policies. result, despite sharp shock, likely contraction many developed countries increase aggregate disposable income calendar year. There more pandemic-related deaths per capita elsewhere, reaching 525,000 As shelter place other emergency initiated March–April system faced disruptions. Pandemic-related mortality stress systems healthcare providers dominated news, scenes empty grocery shelves added sense crisis. With collapse food consumed away home, fine-tuned supply chains commercial residential consumption fit task. Falling prices broad commodities sent shivers down agriculture's spine. Dairy dumped milk they could sell while elsewhere long lines waited at charity banks donations afford buy. Yet beginning, economists remained mostly optimistic adjust. That largely proven case. death. At level occurred, even worse, adjusted eased quickly some thought possible. Fiscal including direct transfers, enhanced unemployment benefits, payroll protection payments, dampened bolstered demand. Emergency aided incomes animal plant products, just traditional program crops. And made difference prices, crop up sharply early-2021. this understate difficulties sector over past Average effects mask variation impacts diverse producers, consumers regions. Even brighter picture 1-year point, grounds cautious optimism, rages left country exhausted. Some time overcoming immune impacts. A body economics literature swiftly emerged tracing developments since March globally.1 Weersink al. (2021) provide cogent assessment Canada. key observation months Supply arose illness workers need distancing installation protective mechanisms facilities, reduced output short term. Demand affected primarily how products reached consumers. Consumption home dropped precipitously retail demand correspondingly increased, persistent continued. highlight, differed depending perishability, production-cycle lengths, structure. Thus, dairy impacted shifted toward at-home use. risen 30% 2019, fell below March–May 2020. Broiler egg cycles, declined April May compared earlier. Sharper pork beef, longer biological lengths. Beef steer slaughter one-third hogs 40% during April–May. effect spread between falling farm-level rising prices. But beef regained prepandemic volumes May–June. Producer stabilized August Among crops, seasonal summer perishable fruits vegetables coming timing spread. Effects varied widely disruption did end causing product availability problems, availability, health, wellbeing farmworkers concerns focus. Storable grains oilseeds short-term adjustment stress. Production historically high number acres planted 2019 because weather. Price movements mixed onset: corn declining feed ethanol demand, soybean wheat rice initially increased. Further decline raised concern about pandemic-depressed global carrying forward early-2021 world grain much higher early-2020 increased China together shortfalls Europe, Russia, Ukraine overtook downward price pressure. In consumer 3.9% December earlier, general inflation rate 1.4%. onset pandemic, two dollar Aid, Relief, Economic Security (CARES) Act (March 27, 2020) wide-reaching financial small businesses, state governments, hospitals, families. Agricultural businesses received tune $6 CARES Act's Payroll Protection Program. USDA orchestrate new (CFAP-1) above beyond authorized bill designed offset producer losses crops storage livestock quarter CFAP-1 coverage estimated $16 billion, $10.5 distributed (Table 1). second (CFAP-2) implemented September compensate through fourth quarters $14 $13.3 2021. third round includes rolling unspent CFAP funds $13 additional loss $900 Response Relief Supplemental Appropriations Act, Consolidated (CAA, 2020). Implementation pending national order $1.9 Biden administration American Rescue Plan 2021 (ARP, 11, 2021) only Democrats Congress. ARP targeted commodity purchases aid socially disadvantaged ranchers. Market Facilitation (MFP) Initiated July Commodity Credit Corporation (CCC) authority Payments $9.6 based of: Soybeans: $7.3 billion; cotton, sorghum, corn: $1.3 Cherries almonds: $0.2 hogs: $0.8 (based history or live owned) $14.5 for: Nonspecialty crops: $13.6 per-acre determined commodity-specific payment rates county-level historical average areas, yields mix; eligible area covered exceed area. included, along 20 others, alfalfa hay, barley, corn, rice, soybeans, upland Specialty $0.3 six almonds, fresh grapes sweet cherries walnuts $0.6 owned Announced using funding $2 signed law CCC $10.6 (near complete 21, 2021, $2.7 52.5% inventory (minimum unpriced inventories January 15, 50% production); ($1.8 billion), soybeans ($0.5 cotton ($0.3 ($0.1 billion) aquaculture, nursery floriculture: $1.0 80% mid-January mid-April sales certain Dairy: $1.8 January-March 25% anticipated April–June cattle ($4.4 Hogs pigs ($0.6 billion): Other products: $0.1 various criteria $13.9 borrowing replenishment $13.2 four categories: Acre Based: $6.2 Price-trigger Coverage 13–17 27–31, if 5% greater share 2020/21 marketing marketed 2020; ($3.4 ($1.3 ($0.7 sorghum barley ($0.05 sunflowers ($0.02 Flat-rate Payment $15/acre 31 field row qualifying price-trigger; (highest canola, oats, peanuts, sugar beets, sugarcane Sales commodities: $2.4 Sliding scale range price-trigger without acreage data; floriculture, horticulture, tree nuts, fruit, vegetables, $4.6 75% broiler ($0.04 April-December ($1.2 maximum 12-August 31, ($2.8 lambs sheep ($0.09 (CAA) Signed Anticipated $13.0 allocated programs; implementation 2021: flat-rate $4.8 $20/acre; ($1.7 ($0.8 ($0.2 modified CFAP-2 rules, block grants Ethanol: due fuel Contract poultry livestock: cover chain provisions: inventory-based producers; depopulation losses; expanded margin Additional $2.3 CFAP-2; hold review 2021; provides Authorizes programs, including: ($3.6 billion); debt relief ($4.0 ($1.0 ranchers; SARS-CoV-2 surveillance animals inducing one circumstance. quite different Programs Trump solely compensation arising foreign retaliation, China, against tariffs imposed (Grant, Arita, Emlinger, Johansson, & Xie, Orden, 2021). Nonetheless, noteworthy very reasons experiencing period five unusually support. effect, forecasting inflation-adjusted net highest half century. Government account 44% income, double contribution (Glauber Smith, To determine individual develop remarkable set estimates formulas. risk oversimplification brevity, are product-specific related overall lower and/or costs defined relevant (see, e.g., Schnepf, description programs). Eligible quantities production, sales. Given parameters funding, often able calculated losses. Product become detailed CAA. From outset, larger bills. Taking together, nonspecialty (largely oilseeds, primary target support) $8.9 (mainly hogs) $8.4 $3.0 specialty vegetables) $3.4 If notified Current Total Aggregate Measurement Support, $19.1 limit WTO creative legal ways reporting adopted. CAA, limited extent ARP, issue MFP expenditures explicitly versus discretionary use executive branch granted (CCC). funded exclusively authority. $6.5 $9.4 appropriated Act. almost entirely early discussion raising limit, give latitude determining GDP contraction, played largest role sustaining domestic It became evident minority communities low-wage employment shuttering nonessential service sectors essential services (including distribution) them exposed contagion. Less-resilient housing environments exposure COVID-19; indeed, heightened vulnerability definition poverty. Attention thus turned poor Americans insecurity. Gunderson, Hake, Dewey Engelhard insecurity, broadly those “without access all times enough active, healthy life” affect 54 million 46% 2018. address insecurity directly, $100 Families First 18, several $500 women, infants children (WIC), state-managed distributions open-ended what year's $4.0 USDA-managed farm-to-families purchase (see Aussenberg Billings, further legislation began facilitate conditions replacing meals usually served schools relaxing eligibility requirements affecting recipients administrators. benefits matched Nutrition provisions $8.8 child $15.8 (SNAP) Continuing (October 1, $8.0 CAA raise SNAP 15% June $1.5 $400 free authorizes $12 extend states, WIC benefits. Increased poverty issue. greatest uncertainty surrounds course consequences developing world. While resilient countries, severe Using late −2020 assessments, Baquedano, Zereyesus, Christensen, Valdes estimate insecure people 160 76 countries. decade, projected resume their upward trend fall shifting sustained nonetheless growing highlighted character responses onset. great remains, conclude few conjectures possible long-term implications. First, historic shock come. deeply quickly. unlikely Risk management receive attention improvements should prompted throughout add resilience standards. actors retailers inclined efficiency practices profitable normal years. Those profits year-over-year One outcome beneficial boosts private investment R&D. Past investments rapid development vaccines constructive lesson. Paarlberg argues recent book aimed debates, modern science technology path addressing environmental challenges consistent counter-cyclical Great Depression. accounts fraction so here too Still, seen crisis 1980s. points directions. arena. forgotten. 12 years, centennial original Adjustment 1933 celebrated expect fanfare. Within context, questions arise. Will bills future support—that is, reset bar amounts expected policy? applies particularly livestock, beneficiaries find continue make claims before administrative well legislation? dampening down, prove hard fully unwind. exacerbated racial, disparities States. divisions terrible wake elections. Pandemic after-effects exacerbate situation, worsened around them. divide logrolling coalition interests. Yet, offering something each true 2023 bill. Finally, there question trade. precedes trade disarray administration, unilateral retaliation. going argued ago underscored inherent fragility integrated barriers answer Stronger international institutions cooperation answer, detection containment contagious diseases ensure security. ago, onset, said argument tomorrow, today. Tomorrow here. issues engaged. thank Lars Brink, Robert Paarlberg, Carl Zulauf helpful comments. All values expressed